Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
